Zeng: even if come, prevention and control also should have confidence 
 
 
The 2014-10-21 
 
 
Source: health 

 
Our reporter Chen 

        With the rapid increase of west African countries ebola haemorrhagic fever, the United States, Europe has recently found that imported cases, the United States, Spain, in the process of clinical treatment in nurse infections. Europe and the United States defense "lost," added the international community to further spread the ebola outbreak of worry and fear. But experts said that although many countries have imported cases risk is higher and higher, but the risk of epidemic spread outside ebola in Africa is still very low, even if a few imported cases, should also be calm to deal with. 
 
        Individual cases are difficult to say it's lost 
 
        September 30, the native's first confirmed the importation of ebola haemorrhagic fever, Duncan from Liberia is worth the visit. On October 12, a nurse nursed Duncan was diagnosed with the ebola virus, three days later, the same contact with Duncan had a nurse of the ebola virus detection result was positive. Line losing both in the United States, the world's fear of ebola intensifying, many countries impose tighter port quarantine measures. 
 
        The emergence of the "individual cases, it doesn't mean lost." The Chinese center for disease control and prevention epidemiological chief expert said zeng guang, America's first imported cases, the second generation of infections found in a timely manner, close contacts with clear, clear chain of transmission, so the outbreak is unlikely to spread. "Although initially to the cases of diagnosis and treatment, medical personnel protection and management of the close contacts are exposed some problems, but quickly learn perfect strategy, believe the United States can do effective prevention and control." 
 
        Zeng says, west African countries outbreak is out of control, because infection, close contacts, the boundaries of normal people and the chain of transmission is not clear, all kinds of control strategy is difficult to implement, and this kind of situation in establishing effective prevention and control system of the country will not appear. Beijing at the beginning of the 2003 SARS epidemic prevention and control is difficult, mainly is the spread of the virus chain is not clear, I don't know where infection patients, the public health workers tend to to a chain of transmission dozens of investigation, to determine the existence of the SARS transmission through the air. And this conclusion play a decisive role for correct prevention and control measures. "But similar work in the west Africa it is hard to do it." 
 
        Alert to the air they are transmitted 
 
        How to explain the rapid spread of ebola virus, the three countries in west Africa? In Texas Presbyterian hospital nurses infection events, is exposed to the hospital protection does not reach the designated position, or tip the virus now is worse than the past? Zeng said, international virology research and clinical diagnosis of the ebola made progress, but also limited in terms of field epidemiological investigation, and field epidemiological investigation is the basis of developing effective prevention and control strategy. 
 
        Zeng said that the rapid development of the recent outbreak of west African countries, far more than popularity over the past 37 years, show that the transmission of ebola ability enhancement. According to the understanding of the original, the ebola virus mainly through contact with blood, body fluid, feces, or approved by injection, the sexually transmitted, but from the United States, Spain are now known to nurse infection, also difficult to explain their infected experience. Even when take off protective clothing casual contact to the nurse's body, the virus also would not be back into the body through the skin wounds or mucous membrane, there has been no report such conditions exist. And, therefore, cannot be ruled out even more vigilant about the possibilities, such as air, they are transmitted. 
 
        "Deadly infectious diseases for new hair, or come back, be good at discovering new sensitive, don't ignore to prevent any route of transmission of difficult to eliminate, which conform to the principle of prevention and control of public health in general." Zeng said, confirmed by the method of the experiment by the air, they are transmitted is hard. 
 
        Early detection and isolation is the most effective measures 
 
        International widespread pessimism about west Africa three kingdoms ebola outbreak movements, the world health organization (who) predicts early December will be up to 10000 new cases per week, the United States centers for disease control and prevention cases early next year could reach 1.4 million, estimated at northeastern university in Boston, USA lab researchers also used a computer model calculate the epidemic spread to various countries, China among the most likely to ebola 16 countries. 
 
        Zeng guang said, these Numbers are expected in accordance with the number of cases now increase speed, although the outbreak of west Africa in The Three Kingdoms is still rising fast, but also should consider its own rule of infectious diseases, especially epidemic dynamics, the dynamic change of transmission not only see the "speed", also look at "acceleration". Reviews the history of human beings for thousands of years many menacing deadly infectious diseases epidemic has natural fluctuation process, because the popular condition is variable, such as pathogen poisoning in the propagation force weakened, caused by various reasons, such as reducing contact people, can make popular power weakened. Now in our country and other countries in west Africa with aid in strengthening, mainly affected countries are also extremely difficult circumstances adhere to the prevention and control, such as sierra leone has action, and launch lawmakers and officials at various levels, led the people to fight against ebola outbreak in accumulating various favorable conditions. 
 
        "I was also very optimistic to contain the outbreak, especially west African countries outside the region, as long as the chain of transmission is clear, you won't get pandemic." Zeng said. 
 
        "Current control the ebola outbreak is counting on vaccines and specific, the only way is to timely detection, diagnosis, isolation, cases and suspected cases, for the treatment of as much as possible close contacts of relevant strict medical observation, 21 days for the environment strict disinfection, education people changing health behavior." Zeng guang, said international aid is important, but the difference is in west Africa in The Three Kingdoms, to mobilize social forces, principles and measures to carry out prevention and control. 
 
        Need to consolidate the advantages make up for the loopholes in our country 
 
        Two nurses infection events exposed the lack of the prevention and control system facing the ebola, easier to problems in other countries? Zeng said that each country has its own strengths and weaknesses, the key is to play advantage, make up the shortfall. 
 
        Zeng guang, said the United States has the world's highest level centers for disease control and prevention, but also has weaknesses. For example, at present most of the hospitals and medical personnel is not ready to, how to set up the ebola designated hospitals and medical personnel training is not happen overnight; American society emphasizes individual freedom, there is no federal law on the prophylaxis and control of infectious diseases, state chart; To close contacts to take the most effective centralized quarantine measures the lack of legal basis, etc. In short, the European and American countries for decades not seen such a spirited contagion, ebola faces the challenge of new, some panic is inevitable. 
 
        Zeng thought, complete medical and public health system, a strong social mobilization and emergency response ability and valuable experience in the fight against SARS, can according to the law on the prophylaxis and control of infectious diseases and close contacts of patients in isolation, the fixed-point hospital of infectious diseases throughout the country, and so on, these are our advantage, is gradually perfect in actual combat and after many tests. Since the ebola outbreak, west Africa, Chinese authorities have in such aspects as technical reserves and personnel training done a lot of specific work. Our country public health enterprise development has reached the turning period, from accepting international aid to provide international aid. 
 
        Zeng said: "we are also facing the same problem with the United States, I don't know when and where the first ebola cases. In the event of, in the incubation period of the patients could not blocked by the port, the first clinical hospital can report in time?" Zeng said that China Africa most of the places such as Europe, the Middle East, is not easy to clear who come from the epidemic area, port health inspection in our country a lot of work, input and spread of events in the United States, may also occur in our country, but will soon discovered by monitoring network in our country. 
 
        "Our goal is: in the first generation of cases, reduce cases of the second generation control, put an end to the third generation." Zeng said, "we are going to play their own advantages, close observation of the ebola international tendency, while calmly, paralysis of avoid by all means, check for loopholes and insufficient, do war, win to have firm confidence."